← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Wed, May 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 52% | 41% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.83 | value: +17% |
| Moreirense FC win | 22% | 28% | 4.31 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Moreirense FC +0.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Felipe Pires · Moreirense FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · FC Famalicão |
| 43' | 🟨 | Walterson Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Felipe Pires · Moreirense FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Diogo Figueiras · FC Famalicão |
| 54' | 🟨 | — · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | 🟨 | — · Moreirense FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diogo Queirós · FC Famalicão |
| 84' | ⚽ | Walterson Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 138.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1540.26 | 1568.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.93 | 21.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 4.95 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.14 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |