← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Tue, May 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| CD Tondela win | 35% | 39% | 2.79 | value: +9% |
| Belenenses win | 33% | 32% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Tondela +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Belenenses +0 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 65% | 1.63 | value: +7% |
| Over | 41% | 35% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |