← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Mon, May 10, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 86% | 1.35 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 18% | 9% | 5.50 | fair |
| Farense win | 10% | 5% | 10.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −1.5 | 54% | 1.78 |
| FC Porto −1.5 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 62% | 1.71 | value: +7% |
| Under | 44% | 38% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Cássio Scheid · Farense |
| 6' | 🟨 | Tomás Tavares · Farense |
| 6' | 🟨 | Jonatan Lucca · Farense |
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 13' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba · FC Porto |
| 14' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 20' | ⚽ | Luis Díaz · FC Porto |
| 25' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 30' | 🟥 | Bilel Aouacheria · Farense |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 72' | 🟨 | Diogo Leite · FC Porto |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 81' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | César Martins · Farense |
| 84' | ⚽ | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 89' | ⚽ | Licá · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1439.00 |
| 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1859.06 | 1482.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.46 | 19.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 71.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 4.07 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.62 | — |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |