← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Fri, May 7, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 42% | 36% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.31 | value: +16% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 29% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 46% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Mikel Villanueva · CD Santa Clara |
| 21' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nenê · CD Santa Clara |
| 35' | 🟥 | Nenê · CD Santa Clara |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alexandre Guedes · FC Famalicão |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marco Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivo Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fernando Valenzuela · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Queirós · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cryzan · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟥 | Pierre Sagna · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 67.00 |
| 2744.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1542.41 | 1541.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.20 | -8.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 68.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 22.28 | — |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |