← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Thu, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 41% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +5% |
| CD Nacional win | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | David Simão · Moreirense FC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · CD Nacional |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Filipe Soares · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Larry Azouni · CD Nacional |
| 62' | ⚽ | Nahuel Ferraresi · Moreirense FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · CD Nacional |
| 71' | 🟨 | Vladan Danilović · CD Nacional |
| 74' | ⚽ | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| ⚽ |
| André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Camará · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedrão · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 125.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1540.42 | 1363.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.70 | -1.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 4.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.45 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |