← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Wed, May 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 36% | 30% | 2.66 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 40% | 3.10 | value: +25% |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Maritimo +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 56% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 44% | 2.77 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jean · Maritimo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 32' | ⚽ | Samuel Lino · Gil Vicente FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rafik Guitane · Maritimo |
| 68' | 🟨 | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Yves Baraye · Gil Vicente FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Vítor Carvalho · Gil Vicente FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Denis · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 24 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 🟨 |
| Léo · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 65.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1482.59 | 1480.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.89 | -21.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 4.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |