← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, May 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 52% | 45% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +7% |
| Boavista win | 20% | 25% | 5.00 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Boavista −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Nuno Santos · Boavista |
| -5' | 🟨 | Nuno Santos · Boavista |
| -5' | 🟥 | Nuno Santos · Boavista |
| 17' | ⚽ | Alberth Elis · Boavista |
| 34' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lincoln · CD Santa Clara |
| 50' | ⚽ | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jackson Porozo · Boavista |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mansur · CD Santa Clara |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Marco Pereira · Boavista |
| 75' | ⚽ | Alberth Elis · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hidemasa Morita · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Léo Jardim · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2738.00 |
| 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1543.99 | 1502.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.70 | 15.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.92 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |