← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Wed, Apr 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 66% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.81 | value: +25% |
| Boavista win | 13% | 12% | 7.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga −1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 45% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 15 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga |