← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 56% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.71 | value: +21% |
| CD Nacional win | 18% | 16% | 5.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mikel Villanueva · CD Santa Clara |
| 8' | 🟨 | Vincent Thill · CD Nacional |
| 14' | 🟨 | Lincoln · CD Santa Clara |
| 35' | ⚽ | Rui Costa · CD Santa Clara |
| 47' | ⚽ | Rui Costa · CD Santa Clara |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 69' | 🟨 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 79' | ⚽ | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Ukra · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 2718.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1549.46 | 1365.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.14 | -44.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.34 | -1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |