← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 66% | 58% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.85 | value: +14% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 14% | 18% | 7.00 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pacos Ferreira +1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 61% | 1.82 | value: +11% |
| Under | 47% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 2 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |