← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 37% | 2.80 | value: +4% |
| Boavista win | 33% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Boavista +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 43% | 2.52 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Léo Vieira · Rio Ave FC |
| 3' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 10' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Yusupha Njie · Boavista |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 38' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 46' | 🟨 | Pelé · Rio Ave FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 57' | 🟥 | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 70' | ⚽ | Carlos Mané · Rio Ave FC |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| Ronan · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chidozie Awaziem · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberth Elis · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fábio Coentrão · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 252.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1504.64 | 1553.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.94 | -20.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 22.97 | — |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |