← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Mon, Apr 5, 08:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 69% | 66% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 10% | 16% | 10.00 | value: +57% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Moreirense FC +1.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.