← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 2, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 37% | 37% | 2.65 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 33% | 31% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| CD Nacional +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 39% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Anderson Oliveira · Portimonense |
| 33' | ⚽ | Beto · Portimonense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brayan Riascos · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Matias · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luquinha · Portimonense |
| 54' | ⚽ | Beto · Portimonense |
| 62' | ⚽ | Fali Candé · Portimonense |
| 68' | ⚽ | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vladan Danilović · CD Nacional |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabrício · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 32.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1392.29 | 1483.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.80 | -2.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 26.28 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |