← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 54% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 63' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tiago Almeida · CD Tondela |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 80' | 🟥 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟥 | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cryzan · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mansur · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 🟨 |
| Salvador Agra · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Yohan Tavares · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2696.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1556.07 | 1452.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.00 | -4.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.60 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| league points | 31.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |