← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
| Farense win | 22% | 25% | 4.35 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Farense −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 46% | 2.32 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |