← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Mon, Feb 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 73% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 9% | 11% | 11.45 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +9% |
| Under | 48% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 18' | ⚽ | Léo · Maritimo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Marcelo Hermes · Maritimo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Wilson Manafá · FC Porto |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Agustín Marchesín · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jean · Maritimo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Amir Abedzadeh · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| Otavio · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 205.00 | 1362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1473.13 | 1840.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.94 | -11.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.05 | 8.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.77 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |