← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Tue, Feb 16, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 39% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 31% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 39% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Tim Soderstrom · Maritimo |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 27' | 🟨 | Rafik Guitane · Maritimo |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · CD Tondela |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lucas Áfrico · Maritimo |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sassá · Maritimo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Roberto Olabe · CD Tondela |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pedro Augusto · CD Tondela |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 🟨 |
| Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Trigueira · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 168.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1457.15 | 1482.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.93 | -28.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| league points | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.03 | 7.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |