← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Feb 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 52% | 49% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
| CD Santa Clara win | 21% | 21% | 4.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CD Santa Clara +0.75 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.75 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 51% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |