← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 35% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 36% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CD Nacional +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Larry Azouni · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Francisco Ramos · CD Nacional |
| 51' | ⚽ | André Pinto · Farense |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ryan Gauld · Farense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fábio Nunes · Farense |
| 68' | ⚽ | João Vigário · CD Nacional |
| 83' | ⚽ | Pedro Mendes · CD Nacional |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nuno Borges · CD Nacional |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Pedro Mendes · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Stojiljković · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 196.00 |
| 12.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1427.77 | 1459.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.69 | -12.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 4.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |