← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Fri, Feb 5, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Boavista win | 35% | 44% | 2.82 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 34% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 25% | 3.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Boavista +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 69% | 58% | 1.42 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 42% | 3.10 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |