← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 41% | 42% | 2.42 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 43% | 2.46 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | João Lucas · CD Santa Clara |
| 42' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Jhonata Robert · FC Famalicão |
| 54' | 🟨 | Iván Jaime · FC Famalicão |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rafael Ramos · CD Santa Clara |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Diogo Queirós · CD Santa Clara |
| 71' | 🟨 | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 73' | 🟨 | Patrick William · FC Famalicão |
| 77' | 🟨 | Costinha · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | ⚽ | Andrija Luković · FC Famalicão |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| 86' |
| 🟨 |
| Ivo Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rúben Vinagre · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 2634.00 | 1112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1526.00 | 1528.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.66 | -28.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 8.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.56 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.10 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |