← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 39% | 36% | 2.45 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.16 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Abdu Conté · Moreirense FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Brayan Riascos · CD Nacional |
| 53' | 🟨 | Larry Azouni · CD Nacional |
| 63' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rúben Micael · CD Nacional |
| 78' | ⚽ | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pedrão · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nahuel Ferraresi · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1411.59 | 1544.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.16 | 2.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 8.88 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | — |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.91 | 25.77 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |