← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Fri, Jan 8, 09:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 70% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 11% | 12% | 8.66 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Famalicão +1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba · FC Porto |
| 13' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 15' | 🟨 | Diogo Queirós · FC Famalicão |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Jhonata Robert · FC Famalicão |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vaná · FC Famalicão |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Sérgio Oliveira · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 55' | 🟨 | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 89' | ⚽ | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Dani Morer · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1103.00 | 1317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1535.38 | 1847.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.59 | 16.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 21.78 | 26.70 |
| state index | -0.57 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |