← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 29, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 75% | 86% | 1.27 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 17% | 11% | 6.16 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 8% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −1.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 23' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fali Candé · Portimonense |
| 34' | 🟨 | Willyan Rocha · Portimonense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 54' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · Portimonense |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luca Waldschmidt · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 76' | 🟨 | Beto · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adel Taarabt · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Gilberto · Portimonense |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 150.00 | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1844.76 | 1455.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.24 | -7.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 24.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 9.02 | 10.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.88 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.59 | — |
| state index | 1.20 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |