← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Farense win | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Pacos Ferreira +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 42% | 2.53 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 54' | 🟨 | Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 66' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ryan Gauld · Farense |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ryan Gauld · Farense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diaby · Pacos Ferreira |
| 88' | 🟨 | Amine Oudrhiri · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Fonseca · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maracás |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 24 | Fouls | 25 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 722.00 |
| 940.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1486.89 | 1528.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.68 | 40.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.89 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.64 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.67 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |