← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: João Carlos Bento
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 44% | 51% | 2.23 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Rúben Micael · CD Nacional |
| 18' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nuno Borges · CD Nacional |
| 28' | 🟨 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 28' | 🟥 | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 30' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · CD Tondela |
| 68' | ⚽ | Brayan Riascos · CD Nacional |
| 81' | 🟨 | Enzo Martínez · CD Tondela |
| 83' | 🟨 | Naoufel Khacef · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Naoufel Khacef · CD Tondela |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 🟥 |
| Naoufel Khacef · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 148.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1388.60 | 1458.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.72 | -1.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |