← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 37% | 39% | 2.67 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.94 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +0 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Belenenses +0 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 61% | 1.45 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Afonso Sousa · Belenenses |
| 46' | 🟨 | Stanislav Kritsyuk · Belenenses |
| 48' | 🟨 | Tomás Ribeiro · Belenenses |
| 53' | 🟨 | Franck Bambock · Maritimo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Stanislav Kritsyuk · Belenenses |
| 61' | 🟥 | Stanislav Kritsyuk · Belenenses |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bruno Ramires · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francois-Xavier Fumu Tamuzo · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Lima · Belenenses |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 🟥 |
| Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joel Tagueu · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 140.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1485.69 | 1486.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.73 | 17.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| league points | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 11.78 | 12.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | — |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |