← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Mon, Dec 7, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 44% | 37% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 33% | 3.67 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Bilel Aouacheria · Farense |
| 32' | 🟨 | Amine Oudrhiri · Farense |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fabrício Isidoro · Farense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Milson · Maritimo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rafik Guitane · Maritimo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jean Cleber · Maritimo |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Ryan Gauld · Farense |
| 67' | 🟨 | Milson · Maritimo |
| 67' | 🟥 | Milson · Maritimo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio de São Lúis |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Henrique · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Defendi · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 702.00 |
| 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1480.68 | 1494.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.25 | -35.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 8.01 | 7.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.63 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.60 |