← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 5, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 87% | 1.18 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.56 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 6% | 3% | 17.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −2 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Porto −2 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Zaidu Sanusi · FC Porto |
| 20' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 33' | ⚽ | Rafael Barbosa · CD Tondela |
| 36' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 39' | 🟨 | Abdel Medioub · CD Tondela |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 48' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 62' | 🟨 | Pedro Augusto · CD Tondela |
| 74' | ⚽ | Mario González · CD Tondela |
| 79' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 🟨 |
| Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 79' | 🟨 | João Mendes · CD Tondela |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jaume Grau · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Martínez · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1283.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1834.95 | 1459.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.17 | 11.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.90 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| league points | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.90 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |