← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 44% | 46% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 27% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 19' | 🟨 | Osama Rashid · CD Santa Clara |
| 32' | 🟨 | Nenê · CD Santa Clara |
| 37' | ⚽ | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 41' | 🟨 | Koki Anzai · Portimonense |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 57' | ⚽ | Thiago Santana · CD Santa Clara |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes · Portimonense |
| 66' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jean Patric · CD Santa Clara |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 🟨 |
| Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Pereira · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 2557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1463.10 | 1544.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.72 | 5.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 8.81 | 7.92 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |