← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 25, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 38% | 44% | 2.55 | value: +13% |
| Boavista win | 32% | 29% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Boavista +0 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Fernando Valenzuela · FC Famalicão |
| 37' | 🟨 | Javi García · Boavista |
| 48' | 🟨 | Srđan Babić · FC Famalicão |
| 66' | 🟨 | Chidozie Awaziem · Boavista |
| 69' | ⚽ | Yanis Hamache · Boavista |
| 75' | ⚽ | Javi García · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 83' | 🟨 | Javi García · Boavista |
| 83' | 🟥 | Javi García · Boavista |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Rúben Lameiras · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Reggie Cannon · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho Paula · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jhonata Robert · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 847.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1581.43 | 1513.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.51 | -28.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 5.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.50 | 25.57 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |