← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 23% | 2.70 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 32% | 48% | 3.02 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +6% |
| Over | 42% | 36% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jean · Maritimo |
| 21' | ⚽ (og) | Fábio China · Moreirense FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jean · Maritimo |
| 37' | 🟥 | Jean · Maritimo |
| 38' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Francois-Xavier Fumu Tamuzo · Maritimo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Filipe Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| Nahuel Ferraresi · Moreirense FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Afonso Figueiredo · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 482.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1558.76 | 1530.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.49 | -0.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 33.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.80 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -2.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |