← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 39% | 46% | 2.50 | value: +15% |
| Farense win | 32% | 22% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Farense +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Rio Ave FC +0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand