← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 24, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 86% | 1.35 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 19% | 10% | 5.13 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 10% | 5% | 10.21 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Porto −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gil Vicente FC −1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 71% | 1.78 | value: +27% ⚠ |
| Under | 46% | 29% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand