← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 42% | 39% | 2.31 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 29% | 33% | 3.35 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Farense −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 45% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 55% | 2.21 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Eduardo Mancha · Farense |
| 25' | ⚽ | César Martins · Farense |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alex Pinto · Farense |
| 50' | 🟨 | Eduardo Mancha · Farense |
| 60' | 🟨 | Edwin Herrera · FC Famalicão |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Rúben Lameiras · FC Famalicão |
| 73' | ⚽ | Rúben Lameiras · FC Famalicão |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bruno Jordão · FC Famalicão |
| 88' | 🟨 | Edwin Herrera · FC Famalicão |
| 88' | 🟥 | Edwin Herrera · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Farense | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Algarve |
| ⚽ |
| Brian Mansilla · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 652.00 | 1021.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.47 |
| elo | 1473.43 | 1576.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | — | -2.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.67 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | — | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| league points | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.33 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.33 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.82 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 2.20 |