← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 87% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.74 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 6% | 4% | 17.84 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −1.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Maritimo −1.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 71% | 1.60 | value: +14% |
| Under | 40% | 29% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pedro Pelágio · Maritimo |
| 24' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 42' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 51' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba · FC Porto |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Kibe · Maritimo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 87' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nanú · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1220.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1863.41 | 1511.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.97 | -9.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.26 | — |
| state index | 1.70 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |