← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Mon, Sep 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 38% | 38% | 2.59 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 32% | 29% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Belenenses +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| FC Famalicão +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 62% | 1.69 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 38% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 25' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · Belenenses |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mateo Cassierra · Belenenses |
| 52' | ⚽ | Riccieli · FC Famalicão |
| 55' | ⚽ | Fernando Valenzuela · FC Famalicão |
| 62' | 🟨 | Silvestre Varela · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joaquín Pereyra · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Walterson Silva · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leonardo Campana · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Nacional |
| 🟨 |
| Patrick William · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 271.00 | 1001.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1478.22 | 1567.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.20 | 1.31 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 9.94 | 10.03 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |