← Primeira Liga 2020-21 · Sat, Sep 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 36% | 46% | 2.75 | value: +27% |
| Boavista win | 33% | 28% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Boavista +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 58% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 42% | 2.67 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Júlio César · CD Nacional |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 22' | 🟨 | Nuno Santos · Boavista |
| 26' | 🟨 | Kalindi · CD Nacional |
| 28' | ⚽ | Brayan Riascos · CD Nacional |
| 36' | ⚽ | João Victor · CD Nacional |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ricardo Mangas · Boavista |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ruben Freitas · CD Nacional |
| 60' | ⚽ | Gustavo Sauer · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Angel Gomes · Boavista |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 🟨 |
| Vincent Thill · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Rochez · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chidozie Awaziem · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Camacho · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1378.84 | 1513.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.89 | -37.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |