← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 25, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Maritimo +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Diogo Gonçalves · FC Famalicão |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zainadine Júnior · Maritimo |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 48' | ⚽ | Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gustavo Assunção · FC Famalicão |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 87' | ⚽ | Roderick Miranda · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fábio Martins · FC Famalicão |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 🟨 |
| Vaná · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟥 | Getterson · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kibe · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟥 | — · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kibe · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kibe · Maritimo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rúben Lameiras · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erivaldo · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 267.00 | 755.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1530.32 | 1584.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.44 | 5.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 24.81 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |