← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Thu, Jul 9, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 72% | 64% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.32 | value: +20% |
| CD Tondela win | 9% | 13% | 11.00 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela +1.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Jesús Corona · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 47' | ⚽ | Danilo Pereira · FC Porto |
| 49' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
| 64' | ⚽ | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Ronan · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Xavier · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moussa Marega · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| Fábio Vieira · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 374.00 | 1134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1458.24 | 1865.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.38 | 3.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.73 | 28.41 |
| state index | -0.70 | 1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |