← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 38% | 31% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 38% | 2.84 | value: +7% |
| CD Tondela win | 28% | 31% | 3.47 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Belenenses −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 60% | 1.49 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 40% | 2.77 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Ronan · CD Tondela |
| 23' | 🟨 | Fahd Moufi · CD Tondela |
| 28' | 🟨 | Thibang Phete · Belenenses |
| 39' | ⚽ | Mateo Cassierra · Belenenses |
| 48' | 🟨 | Richard · CD Tondela |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · Belenenses |
| 51' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 53' | 🟨 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 53' | 🟥 | João Jaquite · CD Tondela |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ricardo Alves · CD Tondela |
| 89' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Nacional |
| 🟨 |
| Tiago Esgaio · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 182.00 | 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1488.90 | 1464.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.71 | 25.53 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |