← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 30, 06:15 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Vitória SC win | 67% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.66 | fair |
| Setubal win | 12% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Setubal −1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Vitória SC −1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 3 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.