← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Tue, Jun 23, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 75% | 80% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.97 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 8% | 8% | 12.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| CD Santa Clara −1.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 66% | 1.74 | value: +15% |
| Under | 44% | 34% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 31' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 44' | ⚽ | Anderson Carvalho · CD Santa Clara |
| 50' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 57' | ⚽ | Zaidu Sanusi · CD Santa Clara |
| 63' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 65' | ⚽ | Carlos Vinícius · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Cryzan · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | — · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| ⚽ |
| Zé Manuel · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 539.00 | 2426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1890.61 | 1538.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.32 | 7.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 71.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| league points | 64.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 7.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.37 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |