← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Mon, Jun 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 41% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Portimonense −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.60 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | — · Portimonense |
| 24' | ⚽ | Bruno Tabata · Portimonense |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bebeto · Maritimo |
| 39' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Portimonense |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
| 58' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 60' | 🟨 | — · Maritimo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 68' | 🟨 | Willyan Rocha · Portimonense |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lucas Fernandes |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 142.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1467.43 | 1492.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.47 | -10.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 27.01 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |