← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Jun 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 56% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +6% |
| Aves win | 17% | 13% | 5.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aves −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 42% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 58% | 2.32 | value: +34% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |