← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Wed, Jun 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 41% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +23% |
| Belenenses win | 28% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Belenenses −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 39% | 2.72 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Tiago Esgaio · Belenenses |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Silva · Belenenses |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 63' | 🟨 | Adriano Castanheira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 64' | 🟨 | João Amaral · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edi Semedo · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Show · Belenenses |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hélder Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Diaby · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Thibang Phete · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 747.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1467.83 | 1505.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.13 | 30.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 4.91 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |