← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Wed, Jun 10, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Xistra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 71% | 81% | 1.35 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 19% | 11% | 5.11 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 10% | 9% | 10.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +6% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 31' | ⚽ | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 45' | 🟨 | Willyan Rocha · Portimonense |
| 52' | 🟨 | — · Portimonense |
| 57' | 🟨 | Julian Weigl · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 57' | 🟨 | André Almeida · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 66' | ⚽ | Dener · Portimonense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lucas Possignolo · Portimonense |
| 76' | ⚽ | Júnior Tavares · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Beto · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| Emmanuel Hackman · Portimonense |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 526.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1455.68 | 1893.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.39 | -30.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 19.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.01 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |