← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sun, Jun 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 57% | 60% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 17% | 16% | 5.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Pacos Ferreira −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 46% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 54% | 2.28 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | João Amaral · Pacos Ferreira |
| 14' | ⚽ | Douglas Tanque · Pacos Ferreira |
| 38' | 🟨 | João Amaral · Pacos Ferreira |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lucas Piazón · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mutassim Al-Musrati · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Diego Lopes · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Bruno Teles · Pacos Ferreira |
| 48' | 🟨 | Hélder Ferreira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 52' | ⚽ | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 58' | ⚽ | Gelson Dala · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 🟨 |
| Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟥 | Matheus Reis · Rio Ave FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 342.00 | 737.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1627.12 | 1454.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.17 | 0.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.76 |
| league points | 38.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.03 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |