← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 6, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Vitor Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 35% | 42% | 2.81 | value: +19% |
| Moreirense FC win | 33% | 27% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 40% | 2.73 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Gabrielzinho · Moreirense FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Filipe Soares · Moreirense FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bilel Aouacheria · Moreirense FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Yaw Ackah · Boavista |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fabiano · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fábio Pacheco · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Nuno · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sori Mané · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neris · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabiano · Boavista |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 🟥 |
| Fabiano · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 522.00 | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1545.72 | 1560.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.51 | 24.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 34.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -2.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 26.88 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |