← Primeira Liga 2019-20 · Fri, Jun 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 65% | 61% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 13% | 18% | 7.51 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| CD Santa Clara +1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 41% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 59% | 2.00 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Fransérgio · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 27' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · CD Santa Clara |
| 34' | ⚽ | Thiago Santana · CD Santa Clara |
| 45' | 🟨 | — · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 56' | ⚽ | Francisco Trincão · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 64' | 🟨 | — · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 64' | 🟥 | — · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Thiago Santana · CD Santa Clara |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mamadu Cande · CD Santa Clara |
| 87' | 🟨 | João Afonso · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cidade do Futebol |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlos Junior · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2408.00 |
| 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1522.45 | 1726.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.53 | -13.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 73.50 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.88 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |